During the POLPAN Seminar on January 26th, Dr. Michal Kotnarowski (Institute of Political Studies of the PAS) will present a paper titled ‘Economic voting in Poland: 1997-2011’.
Presentation will be focused on application of retrospective economic voting theory in case of Polish Parliamentary Elections 1997 – 2011. According to economic voting theory, voting behaviour depends on assessment of economic situation – either economic situation of the country (sociotropic model) or financial situation of voter’s household (egotropic model). Classic version of retrospective economic voting model assumes that those voters who positively assess last changes in economic situation tend to support governing parties (Key 1966; Lewis-Beck 1988; Lewis-Beck i Stegmaier 2007). On the other hand, voters critical about economic situation are more willing to support opposition parties. Classic version of economic voting model will be confronted with alternative versions of economic voting models developed for the cases of young democracies facing transformation problems: transitional economic voting model (Tucker 2006) and intertemporal posture model (Stokes 2001; Przeworski 2001). In terms of methodology, two analytical approaches to the study of voting behaviour will be confronted in the presentation, namely: discrete choice models (Long 1997) and propensity to vote approach (van der Eijk i in. 2006; van der Brug, van der Eijk, i Franklin 2007). Analyses show that applied technics are mutually complementary.
The meeting will take place at the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, PAS, Nowy Swiat 72, Warsaw, room 154, from 2:30 to 4 p.m.