On Tuesday, November 18th, Anna Gromada (Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, Polish Academy of Sciencies) presented a paper titled ‘Which of the contemporary theories of fertility has the strongest explanatory power in accounting for lowest-low fertility rates in Europe? Statistical Analysis of Poland, Italy and Germany’.
The presentation gives a brief overview of the demographic changes in contemporary Europe with a special focus on Poland, Italy and Germany. I introduce main theories that attempt to explain falling fertility in developed countries. In empirical part of my presentation, I demonstrate the main findings from 382 generalized linear models that were run to establish relationships between theories and data from European surveys. Finally, I pose a problem whether Poland, Italy and Germany are actually stalled in disequilibrium between the traditional family model and the gender equality model, both models producing sub-optimal fertility results.